2000 Guineas & 1000 Guineas tips: Antepost preview and best bets for Newmarket (2023)

Matt Brocklebank kicks off his Flat antepost previews with a look ahead to the QIPCO Guineas Festival at Newmarket.

2022 Antepost Flat season tips

2pts win Coroebus in QIPCO 2000 Guineas at 5/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pts e.w. Girl On Film in QIPCO 1000 Guineas at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Appleby backed to open Guineas account

There may be a disconcerting amount of guesswork involved when looking at the first Classics of the season in early-April, but needless to say the layers are in the same boat too and even for most trainers it is a time of hope rather than expectation when it comes to their top-notch juveniles training on into the three-year-old campaign.

The powerhouse stars of the previous autumn can swiftly be made to look like smaller fish in a much bigger pond as the later-maturing types catch up and you only have to go back to last year – when a race-fit and much-improved Poetic Flare struck at 16/1 - for a stark reminder to those thinking of lumping on clear form horse Native Trail around the 11/4 mark this spring.

Native Trail is also bidding to become the first Guineas winner sired by Oasis Dream, whose progeny are 0-7 in this particular event, and it appears his stablemate COROEBUS – by the evergreen and highly-dependable Dubawi – offers far more in the way of value at this point ahead of a likely prep run in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in a fortnight's time.

He’s hardly being missed in the market at 5/1 with a handful of firms but there’s no shame in admitting he made me sit up and scream ‘Guineas!’ when winning on the Rowley Mile back in October (replay below) and the Autumn Stakes runner-up, Imperial Fighter, going on to finish just half a length further behind Luxembourg in the Vertem Futurity (than he did Coroebus at HQ) confirms the initial impression that it was a massive performance from a budding star.

(Video) Tips & Insight for the 1000 & 2000 Guineas at Newmarket | SBK Betting Podcast

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Dubawi – still thriving aged 20 – has produced a pair of 2000 Guineas winners already in Makfi and Night Of Thunder, while he’s also had a couple of gallant runners-up as well, namely Dubawi Gold who bumped into Frankel, and Master Of The Seas, who came closest to providing Coroebus’ trainer Charlie Appleby with his first – and let’s be honest now overdue – first success in the opening Classic when short-headed at Newmarket 12 months ago.

Those four horses represent half of Dubawi’s sons to have ever run in the Guineas so it’s a serious record we’re dealing with and the selection would surely be coming here unbeaten had he been ridden a touch more conservatively in the Royal Lodge at the end of September.

He skipped five lengths clear that day on running into the Dip and was only collared in the final stride by the stout-staying, Dante-bound Royal Patronage after appearing to idle out in front on meeting the rising ground.

We know the course holds no fears based on his subsequent victory and, granted anything like normal improvement from two to three, I’m willing to bet it’ll take something special to beat him – whether he’s the supposed Godolphin ‘first string’ on the day or not.

(Video) 1000 & 2000 Guineas Ante Post Preview & Tips from Newbury | SBK Betting Podcast

2000 Guineas & 1000 Guineas tips: Antepost preview and best bets for Newmarket (1)

Boy and Barca two to note

Luxembourg is available at similar odds as Coroebus and while he’s fairly likely to have the pace to mix it with the best milers early on this year, there’s no surprise he’s already a shorter price for the Derby.

Stablemate Point Lonsdale is 10/1 with Sky Bet and the vibes from Ballydoyle are positive about him but at twice his price I wouldn’t be too hasty in ruling out a big run from the Roger Varian-trained Bayside Boy, whose sire New Bay (yet to have a 2000 Guineas runner) is only on his second crop of three-year-olds but last year was fairly encouraging given the filly Saffron Beach found only one too good in the 1000 Guineas.

Bayside Boy saw the back of both Native Trail and Luxembourg last October but he was running on with purpose from near the back of the pack in the Dewhurst and definitely didn’t get the clearest of passages when third again at Doncaster when last sighted.

He looks like making up into a high-class miler this time around and might well be one to catch before the ground dries out in the height of summer.

One place and only a head behind Bayside Boy in the Vertem Futurity was Hannibal Barca, who displayed plenty of promise at two and has since changed hands for 500,000 guineas and been sent to Joseph O’Brien.

By the same sire (Zoffany) as O’Brien’s unplaced Guineas runner last year, Thunder Moon, he arguably has a bit more about him in terms of size and scope as you might expect being out of a Galileo mare, and his participation at Newmarket could be a decent pointer in itself.

Until plans become a little clearer (said to be pleasing the trainer in his work) he’ll remain pencilled in on the shortlist, but at 50/1 with Unibet it is understandable if some are happy to get lured into a speculative each-way bet.

(Video) Qipco 2022 Newmarket 2000 guineas and 1000 guineas racing tips.

Gosden's 1000 Guineas record a little off-putting

Only one winning favourite in the past decade shows the QIPCO 1000 Guineas isn’t simply a case of locking onto the best two-year-old and pressing fire either.

In this instance, Inspiral shines like a beacon and is priced accordingly at 5/2 generally and no bigger than 11/4. She’s obviously in one of the biggest and best yards in Newmarket, though at such odds it’s worth a gentle reminder John Gosden has only won one Guineas in total through his long and illustrious career, that coming via Lahan in the year 2000.

Twenty-two years on and this unbeaten Frankel filly has compelling claims, while I’m not completely sold on the idea that she’s going to be more of an Oaks filly, having started with back-to-back seven-furlong victories on lively ground at Newmarket and Sandown last summer.

The blindingly obvious alternative to market-topper Inspiral is Aidan O’Brien’s Tenebrism, who evidently possesses the sort of brilliance I’m expecting to see from Coroebus in the colts’ Classic.

I’ve toyed with the idea of an each-way double on the pair but Tenebrism missing sixth months of her two-year-old campaign with what must have been a reasonably serious setback is putting me off the idea of siding with her in any capacity.

Take a chance on Girl growing up fast

I’m a little keener to oppose the market principals in this race and will cast the net as wide as 66/1 shot GIRL ON FILM, who looked a bit of a shell last season and is expected to leave her juvenile form well behind with another winter on her back.

Despite being big and green, the daughter of Dabirsim attracted market support ahead of her racecourse debut on the July Course last August and she duly came from an unpromising position near the rear to win going away under Rossa Ryan (watch it back yourself via the link below).

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Just over a month later she was pitched straight into the Rockfel (7/1) and while not up to the task on the day, Frankie Dettori very much looked after her with the future in mind. Is there anyone better than he for a such a mission?

Girl On Film sat last of all early on and was asked for an effort around two furlongs out when the much nippier types began to quicken. She was left floundering, but I like the way she stuck at it coming out of the Dip and was only beaten five and a quarter lengths in the end, without being unduly punished.

That experience should stand her in really good stead and, after just the two outings last year, she’s precisely the sort of filly who rolls into town for a spring trial and looks a completely different horse on three-year-old debut.

Cloak Of Spirits was only third in the Rockfel before finishing second to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas and I’m not too concerned by that defeat as, physically, Girl on Film was never going to be a sharp two-year-old.

It looks a fairly open year when you consider people were seemingly scrambling to back the choicely-bred Tuesday after rather battling home in a Naas maiden last month, so getting a longshot on side each-way looks the sensible approach at this stage.

Published at 1600 BST on 03/04/22

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